[time-nuts] The Demise of LORAN (was Re: Reference oscillator accuracy)

[Lux, Jim (337C)]

On 11/14/09 3:28 PM, "J. Forster" <jfor at quik.com> wrote:

> Somehow, I think they will keep GPS running whatever the cost. There is a
> huge civilian constituency (everybody who cannot or is too lazy to read a
> map) and relies on GPS to guide their Lexus to the nearest Starbucks.
> 
> Also, the military needs it to guide and target munitions. The initial
> Afgahnistan victories over the Taliban would have been impossible without
> GPS and the Special Forces teams.
> 
> The folly of the decision will likely not become apparent until there is a
> major tragedy of some kind.
> 
> Frankly, I doubt that $190 M would buy a single GPS bird and launch today.
> 

I'll bet $190M would buy the bird and launch.  The typical LEO science
satellite runs about $50M to put into orbit (i.e. Deliver ready to integrate
satellite to whereever, and $50M later, it's in orbit).  The MEO orbit for
GPS might be a bit more expensive, but not hugely.  Launching several
hundred kilos to Mars or the Moon runs about $100M.

If you're building multiple satellites that are truly identical, then a
recurring cost of $50M each is totally believable.  Again, for context, the
typical small earth orbiting science satellite typically has a total project
budget (exclusive of launch) of around $100M, and that's to do multiple
instruments, get the bus, integrate, etc..  A larger "Discovery class" (e.g.
Messenger, Dawn, Deep Impact, Genesis, Kepler) mission would be in the
$350-400M range.  New Frontiers class (New Horizons to Pluto, Juno to
Jupiter) are in the $750M range (650 for spacecraft, 100 for launch),
Flagship are the multi-billion dollar (e.g. Cassini)